Barnet Council has told residents to brace for “very painful decisions” after publishing a financial sustainability plan that lays bare a forecast £200 million budget gap by 2029 — the largest shortfall facing any London borough.
The plan, titled Our Plan for Financial Sustainability, sets out how the north London authority intends to steady its books over the next three years. It pins the ballooning deficit on surging demand for the services councils are legally required to provide: adult and children’s social care, and temporary accommodation for homeless families.
Simon Radford, the council’s cabinet member for financial sustainability, pulled no punches about the scale of the task. “The task is mammoth – we need to find £200 million of savings or cost avoidance within three years,” he said. “We are doing everything we can, including bearing down on the biggest things that drive the need for statutory services in the first place.”
Barnet has already gone cap in hand to Whitehall, applying for £135 million in Exceptional Financial Support over the past two years, and has dipped into cash reserves ringfenced for unexpected costs to balance the books. The new plan warns that without changes to national policy, the borough will not be able to meet future demand through its own efforts alone.
“We need to make some very painful decisions in the coming months and years, and to have a brutally honest conversation with residents,” Radford added. “I encourage all to have their say as what we do next will have an impact, one way or another, on every resident.”
The council blames a familiar cocktail of pressures: persistently high inflation, a 40 per cent cut in central government funding over the past 15 years, and a steadily ageing population — one in seven residents is now over 65. Adult social care alone consumes a third of Barnet’s £544 million annual budget.
Barnet is far from alone. Across the capital, town halls are staring into similar financial abysses. Richmond Council has drawn up a £39 million savings plan as a £29 million-a-year funding cut looms, while Westminster has warned of an £88 million shortfall despite freezing council tax. London Councils, the body representing the 32 boroughs, has repeatedly cautioned that demand for care and homelessness services is rising far faster than the money coming in — a squeeze set to tighten further under the government’s planned “Fair Funding” overhaul of how cash is divided between authorities.
One lever under consideration in Barnet is council tax. The borough’s bills sit 32 per cent below the average figure ministers use when calculating funding allocations — a quirk the council says costs it an estimated £74 million every year. Any increase would be politically charged: council tax is already a flashpoint across the capital, with the row over Wandsworth’s proposed rises escalating into a threatened legal challenge.
The stark financial warning lands as the authority attempts to put its own house in order. Barnet recently reversed course on a major IT contract, scrapping a supplier switch to bring the service back in-house — a move the council said would save money and improve resilience.
For residents, the consultation now under way is the chance to have a say before the axe falls. The services under the greatest strain — care for older and vulnerable people, support for children, and emergency housing for homeless families — are the ones the council must provide by law, leaving less wriggle room to shield libraries, parks, street cleaning and other discretionary services when savings have to be found.
The council has opened an online portal and survey for residents to share their views, and a virtual Barnet Question Time on October 26 will see Radford and cabinet colleagues answer finance-related questions from the public.
With three years to close a £200 million gap, the decisions taken in the coming months will shape the borough for a decade to come. The council’s message is blunt: the conversation will be painful — but it starts now.
