London bus speeds fall to lowest since 2013-14 as passenger journeys decline
London’s buses are now slower than at any point since comparable records began, averaging just 9.18mph across the network in 2025-26 — a 4.8% fall since 2013-14, according to a Guardian analysis of Transport for London data published today.
The analysis paints a picture of a network in steady decline: buses slower, passenger numbers falling, services covering fewer miles and waiting times rising — a trend experts warn could drive more Londoners away from the capital’s most-used form of public transport.
TfL’s own figures, set out in its Travel in London 2025 report, confirm the direction of travel. The average bus speed was 9.2mph in 2024/25, down one per cent on the year before, and fluctuated between 9.0 and 9.4mph in the first seven periods of the current financial year — broadly in line with the Guardian’s full-year figure of 9.18mph.
Longer waits, fewer passengers
Even with timetables padded to reflect London’s traffic, buses are increasingly failing to meet expectations. On high-frequency routes — those running more than five buses an hour — passengers now wait 22% longer than expected, up from 18% in 2018.
A snapshot of routes analysed by the transport economist Alexander Jan, a veteran of planning in the capital, found scheduled journey times are now on average 30% longer than they were 50 years ago.
Ridership is heading the wrong way too. Between 2010 and 2019, annual bus passenger numbers consistently exceeded two billion; in 2024 they fell to 1.8 billion — the first drop since the post-pandemic recovery. The network itself has shrunk: TfL buses travelled an average of 487 million km a year between 2010 and 2019, but only about 460 million km a year over the past three years.
A vicious circle
The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has pointed to unreliability as a reason passengers are turning away. Research cited by TfL suggests a 10% fall in bus speed can lead to a 6% drop in demand — raising the prospect of a vicious circle in which slower buses lose passengers, weakening the case for maintaining frequencies and routes.
There is also a financial cost. Because drivers’ wages make up the largest share of operating costs, slower buses mean more vehicles and more staff are needed to run the same level of service.
The decline is not unique to London. A 2026 report by the Transport Strategy Centre at Imperial College London identified a “persistent decline in bus speeds” over the past decade across 15 networks in Europe, Asia and North America.
TfL says it has “developed a programme of actions” to tackle slowing speeds in the coming years, including more bus lanes, priority at traffic signals and working with boroughs to manage roadworks. The Mayor’s Transport Strategy sets a target of a 10% increase in average bus speeds by 2030, from a 2015 baseline.
Reporting based on Guardian analysis of TfL data (23 September 2026) and TfL’s Travel in London 2025 annual overview.
